Prediction on the Auckland property market in 2016
Property prices outside of Auckland are predicted to boom in 2016. Over the past few years, Auckland has been the top performer in home values rising. In the past year, Auckland has seen a 19% increase in the median house price alone. Compare that to the national median which rose just 4%.
Commentators say Auckland house prices will significantly soften over 2016, as the rest of the country's property prices rise.
BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander said outside Auckland, the rest of New Zealand could be in for house price rises of 15 - 20% over 2016 due to low interest rates, population growth and the effect of Aucklanders moving out of the city.
The central bank introduced a 30% deposit requirement for investors buying in Auckland and it is possible it would extend that requirement to other parts of the country as price inflation picked up.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie said he expected Auckland prices would drop during the first half of 2016 and stabilise for the second, he said.
Property investor Olly Newland said Auckland's prices had already started to level off. But he said in other parts of the country, prices would start to climb steadily over 2016.
ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley agreed Auckland's price growth would slow over the year but there were still factors such as migration and low interest rates to drive demand.
He said the effect of Auckland's prices had already been felt keenly around the lower parts of Northland and Waikato but the momentum was starting to shift into other parts of the North Island and should filter through to the South Island by 2016.
Dickens expected the Auckland market to rebound and said supply pressures would continue to support 10% annual price growth. The Reserve Bank expected national house price inflation to peak at the start of 2016.
Top picks for high growth in 2016
Hamilton - Tauranga - Parts of Northland - Parts of Hawke's Bay - Queenstown