Posts tagged investment
Property market predictions for the rest of 2019

The activity in the residential property market indicates a continued steady pace and values holding well for the second half of 2019.

Key factors to watch for will be the policy decisions from the Reserve Bank (e.g. LVR and bank capital rules), the landscape for investors’ returns, the potential flattening off of residential building consents, and how buildings insurance premiums might change due to risk based pricing.


1. Sales volumes to stay pretty flat, with various downward drivers (e.g. slowing GDP growth) largely offset by other positive factors (e.g. low mortgage rates).

2. Average property values still rising but in a restrained fashion, with the more affordable towns and cities in ‘regional NZ’ likely to record the largest increases. By contrast, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see further weakness in Auckland – as buyers bide their time.

3. Further loosening of the LVR rules in November, reflecting our expectation of steady market conditions. Possible options include lowering the owner-occupier deposit requirement from 20% to 15% and/or raising the investor speed limit for high LVR lending from 5% to 10%.

4. Imposition of extra capital requirements on the banks by the end of November, with a phased approach (potentially over five years). This may prompt some consideration of offering different mortgage rates to borrowers with different abilities to service their debt.

5. Banking sector competition to remain intense and ‘rate wars’ to be a recurring theme - regardless of whether or not the Reserve Bank cuts the official cash rate again.

6. Foreign Buyer Ban to remain a contributing factor to softness in the Central Auckland and Queenstown property markets.

7. More homeowners potentially ‘trading up’, or in other words taking advantage of a subdued market, especially in Auckland, to get a bigger or newer property, or in a better location.

8. Rental yields to continue to rise (albeit from a low base), as rental growth continues at a steady pace of about 5% annually, and above the growth in average property values.

9. Residential building consents to flatten off, as capacity constraints around labour and materials bite. However, they will still stay high, and that’ll be necessary to help alleviate housing shortages. A looming ‘re-set’ for KiwiBuild could have implications here too.


Manukau's property market wrap

The recent sales data from REINZ (NZ's most accurate and up-to-date information provider) shows prices remain stable and flat however the good news — Manukau was up 1.4% this month with a new median sale price of $797,000.

The days on market for both Manukau and across Auckland were 45 days and a total of 379 sales were settled across Manukau last month.

Open home numbers and enquiry continues to be pretty good though on the whole, especially on properties under $1M (comparative to a few months ago).


Median house prices

The median house prices in Manukau were up by 1.4% this month. In Auckland, this number increased by 1.2% compared to this time last year from $850,000 to $860,000 — the highest price the region has seen for 2019 so far. Across NZ, the median house prices increased by 3.2% in May to $578,000, up from $560,000 in May 2018.

Properties sold

In Auckland, the number of properties sold in May fell by -21.8% from this time last year, however, there was a 13.0% lift in the number of properties sold when we compare May to April.

Days on market

Auckland saw the median number of days to sell a property increase by 5 days from 40 to 45 when compared to the same time last year.


This morning just 2,187 properties were available on in Manukau, so it’s still dropping a few percent each week. I thought it may actually hold or even lift with the last of the post-holiday campaigns hitting the market this past and next week, but that doesn’t appear to the case. As winter nears closer, listings continue to fall.

General commentary

Recent Statistics NZ data shows that population growth remains strong, low interest rates remain and confirmation that there will be no capital gains tax or even an extension of the five year Brightline test indicates positive things for the property market.

Continued stability moving forward is definitely expected, and is what we are already seeing with stock turning over just a little bit better as both vendors and buyers have now adjusted to the new environment.

LVR Policies

The RBNZ didn’t announce any changes to the current LVR policies in their FS report recently. Maybe these will come in November and change in January, as has happened for the past couple of years. But remember they will (likely) only relax them if housing lending continues to decline, and the easing of the property market extends throughout the rest of NZ (currently just Auckland). So, essentially, only if things get worse.

Therefore one could say that if they don’t make adjustments come November, it’s because the market has improved, or at least, isn’t getting any worse. Either way, both are good outcomes. If we were to see cuts, it will likely be in both the 30% minimum deposit for investors and 20% minimum deposit for owner-occupiers — both by 5%.

Here are the top 10 tips to making your investment a success.

1. Choosing an investment property should be based purely on numbers – and most importantly what the yield is.

2. Don't over capitalise on your rental property. Before undertaking any work you must consider if the improvements you are planning on will be returned to you in rental income.

3. Generally yields tend to be better in less expensive suburbs. Where you aspire to live may not be the best choice for your investment. However, you also need to consider how much the property will appreciate in value.

4. As with all property transactions, try to buy below market value. Select a number of suburbs you think are likely to increase in value over time and look for opportunities such as distressed sales, deceased estates and mortgagee sales.

5. Think about resale. Will the property be attractive to other buyers when the time comes to sell? Is there something special about the property that will attract interest such as its aspect, local schools or privacy.

6. Make sure you have thought about the “what ifs”. What if you have periods of vacancy? What if interest rates increase? What if you need to sell quickly?

7. When you have made the decision to buy, consult the professionals. Use a mortgage broker to find the best lending rate and get legal advice.

8. Find a good property manager and let them do their job. They will find the right tenant and make sure the rent is paid on time.

9. Insurance is important. Your property manager can advise you on what you need.

10. Finally be a good landlord. Be proud of your investment and look after your tenants.

What is yield?

Yield is the income return on an investment. Your ultimate goal as an investor should be to secure a high yield property in an area that delivers capital gains, a strong rental return and low management and maintenance costs.

Gross rental yield = annual rental income (weekly rental income x 52) / property value x 100

Property purchase price = $500,000
Weekly rent = $400
(400 x 52) / 500,000 x 100 = 4.16%

For a more accurate picture of the true yield of a property to include expenses, use the following equation:

Net rental yield = (annual rental income – annual expenses) / (total property costs) x 100

You will find experienced investors are less concerned about a property’s price and more about yield figures.