Posts tagged flat bush
The Australian property market VS's New Zealand’s
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The median sale price in some suburbs within Manukau have flattened and remain stable with no dramatic changes overall when looking over a 1 year period. Interestingly, Auckland’s median sale time has increased whereas most suburbs in Manukau have decreased.

In contrast, Auckland’s new listings and inventory levels were both up compared to January last year, suggesting buyers have a reasonable choice of homes to buy at present.
 
Rise in lending activity
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has reported that mortgage lending activity rose again in recently. Mortgage lending flows are likely to remain solid in 2019, but any further increase in activity is likely to be slow and steady rather than dramatic.

The Australian property market versus New Zealand’s?
For anyone concerned whether the Australian property market slump could be reflected here in New Zealand, you’ll be pleased to know that New Zealand’s lending environment is on a solid footing. Why? 80% of New Zealand’s mortgage debt is fixed, with 33% fixed for at least one year. This gives Kiwi households time to adjust before any interest rate increase hits; whereas most lending in Australia is on floating rates, making it much more exposed to any changes.

Will the LVR changes affect property values?
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There have been many reports in the media about the performance of the property market — more opinion than fact. Over the years you’ve been reading my updates, you know me well enough to know that I like the facts.

There are some key drivers in any property market: employment levels, net migration, crowding, property sale volumes, construction, affordability, rents, and number of days to sell property to name a few. All of these remain at relatively stable levels.

The first home buyer market is certainly buoyant (new mortgage registrations rose from 24.8% to 26.4% last month) with lenders easing up on restrictions along with attractive interest rates — with no predictions of tightening anytime soon.

Changes to LVR's
The RBNZ Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday the RB noted the slowing in mortgage lending growth and house price inflation. In response they have cut the minimum deposit requirement for investors from 35% to 30% (having cut it from 40% a year ago). And banks may now have up to 20% of their lending to owner occupiers at less than 20% deposit. This had been 15% from the earlier 10% percentage of volume limit.

Will these changes affect property values?
Not really. At least, they certainly won’t lead to large rises in house prices, but the changes should bring further stability to the market. Remember when they imposed the changes as the market was rising?  They were never to bring house prices down, they were just to slow the growth and stabilise the market.  Now it’s the reverse.

The sellers market has passed (2 years ago), but the balanced market environment we are presented with is a healthy one. Values remain relatively stable along with stock levels and sales volumes. I see this property climate remaining similar for a few years yet.

Property market update report for October
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The property market in Auckland remains balanced and stable with homes turning over at a relatively slower rate in recent months as listings remain relatively high.

We are finding homes are taking a while longer to sell given the current stock levels, however, there is still a good percentage of homes selling each month and values are reasonably consistent. Sellers are finding that in a balanced market, prices need to be competitive from the get-go and aligned with current market conditions and buyer activity if they are to sell. The silver lining to that, of course, is that prices are relative; so, if you're buying and selling in Auckland in the same market, it balances out.

It's also worth noting that in Auckland over the past 20 years, property prices have nearly doubled every 10 years, as the median 10 year rise is 96% which you can see in the chart below (this data is using REINZ House Price Index). When you compare this to all of NZ, Auckland has sustained a relatively consistent higher 10 year growth in prices that are well ahead of the NZ total at 88%.

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Regardless of the rates of values and turn over, the balance between demand and supply always needs to be considered in assessing market activity and property values.

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