So how is the market?

If you were to ask me how the market is now, I would say not bad. I might even say pretty good. It continues to be a good time to buy, prices are the lowest they'll probably go, and (thanks to the RBNZ lowering the OCR to 1%) interest rates remain low and look set to stay there for quite some time.

With that said, it’s not a bad time to sell either for most properties — assuming you’ve adjusted your pricing expectations to the new norm in Manukau and Auckland overall. Will the low interest rates see an upturn in the market? It is unlikely in the immediate term, however it has already increased confidence and activity in the market. With further relaxing of the LVR rules expected (and perhaps some relaxing of the banks’ lending criteria), predictions point to an upturn maybe late 2020, but more likely 2021–22.

Market highlights

The monthly property report from REINZ shows for the first time in eight months, the number of residential properties sold across NZ in July increased by 3.7% from the same time last year to 6,118. This number is also the highest for the month of July in 3 years.

This suggests we’re starting to see some early signs of growth. We can attribute this to more certainty post the removal of the Capital Gains Tax bill, renewed confidence as parts of the market adopt the new norm in terms of pricing, and the warmer weather we’re looking forward to (which is when we tend to see more activity in the market).

Manukau’s statistics

We are seeing many positive signs for the road ahead. Manukau’s median sale price for July 2019 was $820,000 and when we compare this to July 2018 this figure was $828,000. Auckland's average asking price lifted by 1.5% compared to June 2019 to $928,152 for the second month in a row — that’s still some way off the region’s 2019 peak average asking price of $960,715 in February. I'll be watching with interest to see what happens during the rest of this quarter.

In summary

Across Auckland, prices haven’t really fallen that much; volume yes, but prices have been pretty static for quite some time. We can expect a nice stable market for the foreseeable future.

The median sale price in some suburbs within Manukau have flattened and remain stable with no dramatic changes overall when looking over a 1 year period. Interestingly, Auckland’s median sale time has increased whereas most suburbs in Manukau have decreased.

In contrast, Auckland’s new listings and inventory levels were both up compared to January last year, suggesting buyers have a reasonable choice of homes to buy at present.
 
Rise in lending activity
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has reported that mortgage lending activity rose again in recently. Mortgage lending flows are likely to remain solid in 2019, but any further increase in activity is likely to be slow and steady rather than dramatic.

The Australian property market versus New Zealand’s?
For anyone concerned whether the Australian property market slump could be reflected here in New Zealand, you’ll be pleased to know that New Zealand’s lending environment is on a solid footing. Why? 80% of New Zealand’s mortgage debt is fixed, with 33% fixed for at least one year. This gives Kiwi households time to adjust before any interest rate increase hits; whereas most lending in Australia is on floating rates, making it much more exposed to any changes.

There have been many reports in the media about the performance of the property market — more opinion than fact. Over the years you’ve been reading my updates, you know me well enough to know that I like the facts.

There are some key drivers in any property market: employment levels, net migration, crowding, property sale volumes, construction, affordability, rents, and number of days to sell property to name a few. All of these remain at relatively stable levels.

The first home buyer market is certainly buoyant (new mortgage registrations rose from 24.8% to 26.4% last month) with lenders easing up on restrictions along with attractive interest rates — with no predictions of tightening anytime soon.

Changes to LVR's
The RBNZ Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday the RB noted the slowing in mortgage lending growth and house price inflation. In response they have cut the minimum deposit requirement for investors from 35% to 30% (having cut it from 40% a year ago). And banks may now have up to 20% of their lending to owner occupiers at less than 20% deposit. This had been 15% from the earlier 10% percentage of volume limit.

Will these changes affect property values?
Not really. At least, they certainly won’t lead to large rises in house prices, but the changes should bring further stability to the market. Remember when they imposed the changes as the market was rising?  They were never to bring house prices down, they were just to slow the growth and stabilise the market.  Now it’s the reverse.

The sellers market has passed (2 years ago), but the balanced market environment we are presented with is a healthy one. Values remain relatively stable along with stock levels and sales volumes. I see this property climate remaining similar for a few years yet.